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The net assessment is key to Stratfor's analytical process. It is not a forecast, but rather a high-level overview of the significant issues driving the current behavior of nations or regions --...

The post-Cold War exodus of international powers from sub-Saharan Africa engendered a doctrine of containing -- rather than trying to solve -- the endemic troubles plaguing the vast region. While this attitude persists, U.S. involvement has increased lately -- in select countries -- due largely to the oil industry and the war on terrorism. The African Union formed to help the continent solve more of its own problems has brought Europe back into the picture in a limited way.

Also on the bright side, South Africa -- one of the few nations that can reasonably be considered a regional power -- held peaceful democratic elections in April 2004.

These optimistic blips, however, belie the grim overall geopolitical situation on the continent.

Disparate Battlefields

This diverse 48-nation region continues to face a myriad of internal conflicts, open civil war and humanitarian crises. Conflicts that reached the brink of resolution have descended into chaos once again. This nightmare of bloodshed and grief reflects an underdeveloped territory that has yet to experience widespread stability.

The fortunate few countries that have something strategic to offer, however, have faired better. The extent to which strife affects a particular nation can be measured by that country's importance to the rest of the world -- and to the United States in particular. Regimes in countries vital to the Western agenda seem especially adept at containing internal opposition, thus are able to maintain their grip on power and stability. Those nations of little strategic use tend to descend into turmoil with greater frequency. The difference is that the latter states receive less aid -- financial, military and humanitarian -- from the international community than their more strategic neighbors.

Two principal geopolitical factors -- energy and the war on terrorism -- are driving the current interest in sub-Saharan Africa. Regional oil powerhouses, Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan, for example, receive direct U.S. diplomatic attention and foreign security aid totaling about $180 million annually. Equatorial Guinea, another burgeoning oil and natural gas power, has garnered attention as well, receiving more than $5 billion in private foreign investment over the past five years and prompting the United States to reopen its embassy in October 2003. Energy interests and the accompanying strategic engagement in these countries is only expected to increase as more reserves are tapped and the United States begins to rely more heavily on African oil.

The war on terrorism has presented some of the more lucrative opportunities for African nations allied with the United States. U.S.-friendly nations in the continent's Muslim-dominated regions have reaped tremendous benefits. Chief among them are Sudan and Kenya -- due to receive $81 million and $75 million respectively in U.S. security aid in 2004. The figure for Kenya is particularly remarkable, considering its lack of exploitable resources and the low level of U.S. economic interest in the country.