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Rumors regarding North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s health continued to circulate Sept. 15 after he failed to make his usual public appearance during the national holiday of Autumn Moon Festival. Speculation about the physical state of the so-called “Dear Leader” began shortly before he seemed to confirm suspicions by failing to make a public appearance on North Korea’s 60th anniversary. Later reports said he suffered a stroke Aug. 14, but can now stand with assistance.

Whether Kim dies tomorrow or lives another 10 years, the recent health scare has forced regional and global powers to contemplate the eventual transfer of power in North Korea. Though North Korea’s unusual isolation means the nature of the new leadership largely will depend on the struggle between factions in the country’s central government, external forces also will attempt to influence the transition and the subsequent new leadership.

The states most concerned with the handover of power in North Korea are its neighbors — South Korea, China, Japan and Russia — along with the United States. These regional and global players will watch Pyongyang closely, seeking opportunities to bolster or undermine the regime during times of stress. These countries have different relationships with North Korea, and geographical, political and economic factors will determine which of them can most strongly influence the succession. Only Russia and China have close links to the regime. South Korea has minor links, while the United States and Japan can influence the regime only by applying external pressures on it or through cooperation with Russia or China.

South Korea and Japan

South Korea is obviously most anxious about the future North Korean leadership. The neighbors share a history of violence from the Korean War, and remain divided geographically by the demilitarized zone and by political tensions. At the heart of Seoul’s desire for Korean reunification lies a geopolitical imperative: the defense of South Korea’s northern border. This includes balancing the involvement of outside powers in North Korean affairs, but having a say in any policy that affects either Korea.

Little trade passes between the Koreas, though trade is increasing and having a growing impact on the North, which has sought to attract South Korean investment into isolated zones. Overall, Seoul has semiofficial and unofficial connections to North Korea, but not a broad-based relationship with the full spectrum of the North Korean elite.

South Korea also faces domestic political distractions, with the new government of President Lee Myung Bak struggling to gain control over a fractious political environment. But internal issues will not be enough to prevent South Korea from protecting its fundamental national security interest. Moreover, a South Korean leader could even benefit from a perceived danger to the nation’s well-being, which would unify the public. Thus, Seoul’s primary concern with the North Korean succession is to avoid betting on the wrong horse and preserving its contacts within the North’s political establishment.