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Both an airstrike that killed relatives of a major Taliban commander and the completion of a highway will reduce Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan. (With Stratfor map)

A series of explosions destroyed a complex comprising a house and a madrassa in Pakistan’s tribal belt Sept. 8. Six impacts were reported from what has been claimed to be a U.S. Air Force or CIA unmanned aerial vehicle. One villager claims that two drones fired three missiles apiece. The MQ-9 Reaper — a newer and larger version of the venerable RQ-1 Predator — regularly carries a combination of four AGM-114 Hellfire missiles and two 500-pound bombs fitted with either laser or Global Positioning System guidance kits.

The attack killed 23 people related to a very senior Taliban commander, Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani, who runs a major network of fighters and suicide bombers in Afghanistan managed by his son Sirajuddin. Another son, Badruddin, told media that his father and elder brother were not in the targeted house in the village of Dandi Darpakheil in the North Waziristan agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), at the time of the attack. Those killed included one of Haqqani’s wives, his sister-in-law, a sister, two nieces, eight grandchildren and another male relative. One of Haqqani’s sons-in-law was wounded.

A U.S. attack targeting a jihadist figure close to Islamabad — and resulting in the death of his family — could make matters worse in Pakistan. Islamabad is already dealing with an insurgency waged by jihadists gone rogue and growing anger among the public for increasing U.S. attacks in the country’s northwest. The death of Haqqani’s relatives could lead to Islamabad losing control over his group as well. A loss of control over key Pashtun militant figures and factions will lead Islamabad to completely lose the ability to shape Afghanistan.

The Haqqanis

Haqqani’s importance can be gauged by the reports that Afghan President Hamid Karzai in 2004 offered to make him prime minister in exchange for ending the insurgency. Haqqani established his Islamist militant credentials as a mujahideen commander during the 1980s war triggered by the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. He was affiliated with Hizbi-i-Islami (Younis Khalis Group) — one of the seven groups seeking to topple the Moscow-backed communist stratocracy in Kabul.

After the overthrow of the Marxist regime in 1992, Haqqani became justice minister in the first mujahideen government. Four years later, just before the Taliban captured Kabul, he joined Mullah Omar’s movement and served as minister of borders and tribal affairs and as governor of Paktia province in the Taliban regime. He has had long-standing ties to Pakistani intelligence, and, during the days of the Taliban, he also grew close to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.