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Now that Ireland has rejected the European Union's latest attempt at a governing treaty, France will take the lead in redefining the bloc, and it will do so by further loosening the union's internal bonds.

The European Union has descended into an identity crisis since Ireland rejected the Lisbon Treaty, the bloc’s latest attempt at a governing treaty, June 12. France and Germany, the union’s strongest pillars, have issued official statements in unison about their disappointment and desire to push forward with the treaty ratification process. But these official statements belie the fact that the French have been rattled to the core by the treaty’s failure and are preparing to redefine the entire EU when they take over the bloc’s rotating presidency July 1.

In essence, France believes it will benefit from the failure of EU integration and consolidation. A reversion back to individual states’ sovereignty will free Paris up to seek its own ends through its preferred means, while the tighter and more centralized EU imagined in the Lisbon Treaty ultimately would have constrained Paris to a model that benefited the Germans most.

After the news broke that Irish voters failed to ratify the treaty, Paris and Berlin issued a joint statement saying that the ratification process, so far completed by 18 of the EU’s 27 countries, should continue regardless of the Irish veto. Going ahead with ratification will put pressure on Ireland to hold a second referendum, as happened in 2001 when the Irish public voted against the Treaty of Nice but accepted it the second time.

But the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic have vocally opposed “bulldozing” the Irish into voting again. These countries only narrowly avoided holding referendums on the treaty themselves and have large constituencies of EU skeptics who think of the Irish vote as the death knell of the treaty and have been emboldened to derail the ratification process in their own legislatures.

Other countries have joined in the general fray. The Netherlands cheered on the Irish, Slovenia called for a halt to ratification, Portugal lambasted the Czechs, and several countries have demanded that the EU stop its plans to expand to include several Balkan states.


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