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Although a clash between Georgia and Russia over the secessionist region of Abkhazia seemed very possible last week as both players positioned troops, a trigger is still necessary before this long-standing feud erupts.(With Stratfor map)

An escalation between Georgia and Russia made it look as if the two countries’ simmering conflict over Abkhazia had reached a breaking point. But the escalation fizzled shortly thereafter given that Tbilisi knows it remains solo in its attempts to fight its larger neighbor — especially after a meeting between Georgian officials and a European envoy May 12.

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While the clash between Russia and Georgia has subsided somewhat into its typical stagnation, that does not mean the chatter will stop entirely. Stratfor assumed that a large escalation was occurring that could turn this crisis into a war because both players have moved large numbers of troops into positions on the border of Georgia’s secessionist region of Abkhazia.


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