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The future of international energy supermajor BP's assets in the Caspian region is in question after the conflict between Russia and Georgia. (With Stratfor map)

As humanitarian supplies begin to roll in, it appears that the Russo-Georgian war might be winding down. But the war’s effects on regional energy politics have only just begun. The biggest loser will be British energy supermajor BP, the global energy company most heavily invested in the former Soviet Union. But BP’s woes do not stop in Georgia, as it also faces losing control over exploration, extraction and pipeline investments in Azerbaijan.

To begin with, BP shut down two of its three major pipelines running through the Caucasus as a precaution and a reaction to the war — the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP), which transports natural gas to Turkey and was reopened Aug. 14. BP has also halted operations at the Shah Deniz natural gas field off the coast of Azerbaijan. The 1,118-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day, was already shut down due to an explosion that occurred in the week prior to the war.

Though BP used prudence in closing the pipelines, it is clear the firm is somewhat at a loss as to what will happen to its infrastructure in Georgia after the war. Stratfor sources have indicated that BP even canceled its postwar meeting with the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) because both firms — particularly BP — are reeling from the development. It is thus unclear when the remaining pipelines will start up again, and it is even more uncertain under what conditions the Russians will allow BP to operate in the Caspian in the future.