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The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

The world is still reverberating from the Russo-Georgian war. Much of our guidance derives from that.

1. The situation in Georgia: Obviously we need to begin with what is happening on the ground in Georgia. The Russians are clearly trying to send a message to the countries of the former Soviet Union that they will move at the pace they want and when they want, and that they will define the terms of the agreement as they wish. The exercise of power emphasizes the reality of power. The issue is how far the Russians are going to push this. The intervention in Georgia has certainly been politically popular in Russia, so there is no political pressure to speed up troop withdrawals. The basic question is if the Russians are going to be maintaining a permanent presence in Georgia.

2. Iran: The Iranian issue is still absolutely on the table. A few weeks ago the plan was to increase sanctions on the Iranians if they did not provide satisfactory answers on uranium enrichment. The United States said that they hadn’t, and the next step would be sanctions in which Russia would participate. The latest word is that those sanctions are dead since the Russians will not play. Everyone is ignoring this, but it is critical. What is the next step in U.S. relations with Iran? Is Washington going to ramp up the crisis or use this distraction to ditch its policy, cut its losses in the Middle East and come home? Are the Iranians going to reconsider the accommodations they have made in Iraq and try to go for a better deal? Will the Russians encourage the Iranians to do so?

3. Russo-Syrian relations: The Russians and Syrians are talking. The Russians want the Americans to think very carefully about what Russia could do in the Middle East. The Syrians would love support from a great power. Our forecast on Israel and Syria may need revision, as it assumed Syrian isolation. That may no longer be true. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has only weeks left in office. The pressure is on him to make a deal, but may be off Syria. This is a potentially large change in dynamics.

4. Central Asia: Kazakhstan is mulling shifting the routing for its oil to Russia’s advantage. We need to look at Central Asia carefully. How are these countries re-evaluating their positions? How are the Chinese reacting to this?