Free Preview of Members-Only Content

Turkish President Abdullah Gul attempts the difficult task of normalizing relations with Armenia. (With Stratfor map)

Turkish President Abdullah Gul said he will make a day trip Sept. 6 to Armenia where he will meet for a few hours with Armenian President Serge Sarkissian. Later the two will attend a soccer match. Gul’s visit to Armenia will be the first by the leader of Turkey since the days of the Ottoman Empire, which collapsed in the early 1920s.

Normally such contact between Ankara and Yerevan would not be taking place. In fact, Turkey would be very happy to isolate Armenia for reasons ranging from a deep historical bitterness over claims of genocide to Armenia’s status as a client of Russia and friend of Iran to Yerevan’s hostile relations with Azerbaijan.

Turkey’s tightest ally is Azerbaijan for historical, ethnic and geographic reasons (geographic because Azerbaijan brackets Armenia and checks Russian and Iranian expansion). Turkey stays chummy with Georgia for similar reasons, but Georgia is primarily only important as a connection to Azerbaijan. The fact that Azerbaijan ships loads of oil and natural gas to Turkey (and to world markets through Turkey) is just geopolitical gravy. In short, other than a border with Iran, Armenia’s borders are completely locked down economically and politically with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.