Free Preview of Members-Only Content

To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.

A fire on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline has wound up benefiting Russia, the nation the pipeline was meant to avoid. (With Stratfor map)

Related Special Topic Page

Russian Energy and Foreign Policy

Fires burned for a second day Aug. 7 at an eastern section of the Turkish part of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline after an alleged technical failure that might actually have been sabotage. Oil supermajor BP — the pipeline’s biggest stakeholder with a 30.1 percent share — has claimed force majeure on contracts, satisfied with oil that transists the pipeline, which has a capacity of 850,000 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd). Experts think the fire will burn for two more days, and that repairs to the pipeline could take anywhere from two to five weeks.

In the face of this setback, BP has begun considering alternative routes for the oil shipments. None of these alternatives is optimal, and one — sending the oil through Russia — would defeat the main purpose of BTC, which was built to avoid politically complicated Russia.

Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner

Get Stratfor's Free Intelligence

Objective Facts and Non-partisan Analysis

* Email Address:

Stratfor delivers premier analysis and insightful intelligence on the events and issues that shape your world! Become part of a community that wants to understand what's really happening in the world, doesn't have time for fluff, partisanship, and noisy clutter. Enjoy free Intelligence written by:

Dr. George Friedman – Geopolitics
Fred Burton & Scott Stewart - Terrorism & Security

Delivered to your inbox FREE!

Get right to the salient points and receive:

Situational Awareness - What's happening that you need to know?
Analysis - What do today's events mean to you?
Insight – no partisan agenda & no ideological bias

Stratfor is the world's leading private sector source of geopolitical intelligence. Sign up today and enjoy free intelligence.

* Email Address:

* Email Address:

"I have been a member for about three weeks and find your updates and analyses outstanding. I have referred a number of friends to the site and recommended they become a member. Very nice work."

—David Kretschmer
Healthcare Executive

"Without peer in open source intelligence."

—Gen. Thomas Wilkerson USMC (retired)
CEO United States Naval Institute

"I think you do a great job with what you produce. Keep up the great writing and analysis, it's as good or better than a great deal of the classified intel briefings I used to get."

—Herb Riessen
Brigadier General (retired)

"As a subscriber paid up for the next few years, I find your thinking very refreshing and very rewarding for me personally. I have always thought the mainstream news media were a day late and a dollar short on most subtle issues. And of course elected political leaders were only interested in discussing issues in a way that would help their re-election chances."

—Ed Paules
SVP Capital Markets

"Kudos to you guys for another excellent piece. Your premium subscription is my most important out of pocket professional expense. Your insight and analysis — and willingness to admit your infrequent missed forecast — makes STRATFOR the best daily resource I have."

—Jay A. Carroll
Lt. Col. & Certified Protection Professional

Satisfaction Guaranteed!

30 days risk free. If you're not satisfied with Stratfor, we'll refund 100% of your purchase price!

Your order information is securely encrypted

Questions? Problems with your order? Contact us by email at service@stratfor.com or call 512-744-4300, 9–5 CT, M–F.

User login

Navigation

Free Preview of Members-Only Content