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Ivica Racan, the "political father" of modern-day Croatia, died April 29 of brain cancer, leaving the country without the leader who moved it closer to the West. Racan is known for democratizing Croatia by battling Serbian nationalist leader Slobodan Milosevic, organizing Croatia's first democratic elections, cleaning up the country after the Balkan wars and creating Croatia's relationship with the European Union.
Racan's center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP), along with a handful of moderate and left parties, created a coalition that has counterbalanced the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) since 2003. The HDZ gained enormous support in the 2003 elections when it shifted away from its ultra-nationalist policies and "reformed" itself into a more moderate right-wing party. HDZ has made great leaps since then in developing ties with the European Union and Western institutions, making policies that mirror those of Racan's SDP. However, the personalities within the two parties have kept them vehemently opposed -- not because of policy, but due to personal scandals and politicking.
With the death of SDP's beloved and symbolic leader, the moderate-left coalition could dissolve in the short term. Racan hand-picked and groomed his political successor, Zoran Milanovic, to handle Croatia's domestic and foreign political future. The problem is that Milanovic is young -- he recently turned 40 -- and has not had the time to consolidate a following within Croatia. It will most likely take some time, with Racan gone, for Milanovic to muster his forces. This will leave HDZ to sweep the parliamentary elections in November. This will not change the fact that Croatia is on an almost-certain path to EU and NATO membership, but it will change the balance of power in the Balkans -- where tensions are escalating.
Rising Tensions
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