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Airlines worldwide are expected to take a delivery of almost 30,000 new planes over the next two decades, thanks to a surge in demand for air travel, according to a forecast released June 13 by U.S. plane manufacturer Boeing. The race for that market will ultimately come down to who can offer the best models to fill the demand. The emphasis in this new breed of civilian jetliner is not only on capacity, but also on fuel efficiency, necessitating a high level of composite materials in order to extend range and thicken profit margins.

Right now there are only two “new” models on the market that aim to do just that: the Airbus A380 and the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. These models, however, are not in competition. They aim to fill fundamentally different roles.

The Airbus 380, capable of carrying 500 or more passengers, is the largest commercial passenger airplane in the world. If it ever gets off the ground, it is poised to dominate the massive transcontinental routes that aim to use Qatar and Singapore as mega-hubs.

Airport hubs accepting the A380 will need to make structural adjustments to accommodate the plane. The size of the A380 will limit the number of planes any one airport can accept, since the giant aircraft must be separated from other planes and has other operating restrictions. The A380 also will tie up gates — loading and unloading 500 or more passengers simply takes a long time. Plenty of hubs seem willing to accept the costs associated with these changes, and the A380 really does promise to be a fundamental step forward for the industry.

However, the A380 will not take over the entire industry. The plane might command travel from mega-city to mega-city, but not every route requires squeezing so many passengers onto one airplane.

This is where the Boeing 787, the other new plane on order, comes into play.

Thanks to the gradual expansion of wealth in the United States, Europe and China, traffic has increased between mega and small cities, and also between small cities. These trips are perfect for midrange planes such as the Boeing 787 that will carry 200-300 passengers. Thanks to its size, it is able to tap into the market for trips between small cities, for which an A380 would be overkill. Additionally, the 787 theoretically would be able to replace all existing midhaul planes in the world whenever old models are ready for retirement.

Here is where the Airbus and Boeing investment strategies split. Airbus’ A380 is indeed the magic bullet for the super-large, long-haul routes, but it has little place elsewhere in the system. In comparison, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner can be a stock plane in almost any airport on virtually any nontranscontinental hub-to-hub route. Boeing essentially gets two (very large and expanding) markets for the price of one plane.

Both aerospace firms have other models that compete in what will soon be the other’s market, but in this Boeing enjoys a distinct advantage. Neither next-generation competitor plane — the huge 747-8 for Boeing and the midhaul A350 for Airbus — exists yet. But the 747-8 is simply an advanced version of an existing model. It will take its maiden flight in 2008; the freight version of the plane is slated to enter service in 2009, while the passenger version is scheduled for sale in 2010.

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