The net assessment is key to Stratfor's analytical process. It is not a forecast, but rather a high-level overview of the significant issues driving the current behavior of nations or regions --...
South Asia is commonly understood as including the three major states of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, along with the smaller countries of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan. Also called the Indo-Pak subcontinent, South Asia is distinct in that it is not part of the predominantly Arab Middle East, which does not extend beyond Iran. On the east it stops short of Myanmar, which is part of Southeast Asia. The Indian Ocean to the south of the region and the Himalayan Mountains to the north further underscore the geographical distinctness of the region. A mountain range to the north separates South Asia from the Turkic regions of Central Asia. Ethnically, linguistically and culturally, the various peoples of South Asia are quite similar.
Growing Global Significance
A complex mix of actors, processes and issues overwhelms any attempt to provide a definitive net assessment of this region. However, the challenge must be met, since South Asia is perhaps more politically significant today than ever: It is a nexus of transnational Islamism, jihadism and nuclear weapons.
Although the Taliban has been ousted from power, Afghanistan remains the central headquarters for al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden and the group’s other key leaders are widely believed to be hiding somewhere in the mountainous belt along the Afghan-Pakistani border.
Afghanistan also is a base of operations for other militant, non-state actors from around the world. Many of these groups were established during the civil war that followed the communist coup in 1978, when the Afghan monarchy was overthrown. Now the country is home to extremists from the Caucasus, Central Asia, China, the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Conflicts involving superpowers long have played out in South Asia, adding to its geopolitical significance. Afghanistan — the graveyard of empires — has remained a hotspot since the overthrow of the Daud monarchy. First, the Soviet Union tried to protect the communist stratocracy in Kabul, battling Islamist guerrillas from 1979 to 1989. This was followed by a 12-year period of civil war among various Afghan groups. Now the United States, having invaded the country in the fall of 2001, is trying to protect the new government from another set of Islamist guerrilla forces.
Nuclear weapons are the third reason South Asia commands global attention. Since May 1998, when India — and then Pakistan — completed a series of nuclear tests, the gravity of the rivalry between these neighbors reached a new level. Since then, the possibility of war between them has been a major concern.
International observers were especially alarmed in late 2002 when the two countries, which have fought each other in three major wars (1948, 1965 and 1971) and one minor conflict in 1999, almost came to blows after jihadists attacked the Indian Parliament in New Delhi. Pakistan has since articulated a first-strike nuclear policy because it knows it cannot win a conventional war.
The rise of transnational Islamism, particularly the jihadist brand, is a fourth factor in the region’s significance. Islamist groups have gained power steadily in both Pakistan and Afghanistan since the late 1970s.
In 1992, Islamist groups in Afghanistan won their first major political victory: The seven-party guerrilla alliance known as the Islamic Unity of Afghan Mujahideen (IUAM) ousted the communist regime led by Najibullah of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan. In Pakistan, the first major victory for Islamist groups came a decade later: The Mutahiddah Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), a coalition of six Islamist parties, made unprecedented electoral gains in October 2002, becoming the second-largest group in Parliament and the largest opposition group.
Islamist forces in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are interlinked. Various Pakistani Islamist parties support the jihadist groups in Afghanistan and in the Indian-administered part of the disputed province of Kashmir. The common denominator between Islamist groups in all three countries appears to be al Qaeda.
Driving Forces: Border Concerns and India’s Aspirations
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