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Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) reportedly will announce Feb. 13 whether President Hugo Chavez's opponents submitted enough valid voter signatures to compel a referendum to recall him. Whatever the CNE announces, neither Chavez nor his opponents will ever concede defeat.
This means the struggle for supremacy between Chavez and his foes could again erupt in deadly violence very soon. The last time the president and the opposition clashed publicly -- in April 2001 -- at least 20 people were killed and Chavez was briefly toppled before loyal military supporters put him back in the presidential palace. Chavez won't be caught napping twice, however.
The president warned Feb. 8 on national television that if the opposition doesn't respect the CNE's imminent ruling against a recall referendum, he will order his "civilian and military forces" to enforce the rule of law.
It is unclear how Chavez knows the CNE's final decision beforehand. The body supposedly is independent, although three of its five directors are believed to be Chavez supporters. One of the three is CNE President Francisco Carrasquero, who lives inside a military compound guarded by troops loyal to Chavez. Opposition leaders fear the CNE will find a way to disallow the recall referendum.
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