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The United States has more than a century of experience with occupying and reconstructing conquered countries. However, these occupations have proceeded smoothly only under a peculiar set of...

The United States has more than 100 years of experience in occupying and reconstructing conquered countries -- from its own secessionary South to Kosovo. However, reasonably unopposed occupations have occurred only under one or both of two conditions -- either the country was utterly devastated by war prior to occupation, or a strong and hostile neighboring power existed to render an occupying U.S. defender welcome.

Neither of these conditions appears likely to exist in a post-war Iraq -- a potentially serious problem, given Washington's desire for a quick and decisive occupation. The primary U.S. motive for pursuing the military overthrow of Saddam Hussein is to fundamentally alter the psychology of the region by demonstrating America's willingness to secure its interests militarily. Also, Washington plans to reinforce that perception with military reality by basing large numbers of troops in occupied Iraq, positioning itself to project power throughout the region. That plan suffers if the occupation meets with resistance, tying down troops and testing U.S. political resolve.

Despite being the first country founded on explicitly anti-imperialist principles, the United States repeatedly has found itself in the position of, at least temporarily, occupying conquered countries. An incomplete list includes its own rebellious South following the American Civil War, the Philippines, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Germany, Japan, South Korea and, more recently, Bosnia and Kosovo in the former Yugoslavia, as well as Afghanistan.

Looking to these examples to help forecast events in Iraq is not heartening from a U.S. perspective. The United States saw most success where one of two conditions existed:

1. The United States or some other power utterly destroyed the country in question prior to U.S. occupation.

Ideally, this destruction included not only the physical infrastructure of the country, but also its very will to resist. Such was the case in the Confederacy, which was blockaded, burned and heavily attrited on the battlefield. Likewise, Japanese forces were swept from the seas and islands of the Pacific, and their homeland was fire-bombed and twice bombed with nuclear weapons before Gen. Douglas MacArthur publicly stripped their emperor of his divinity.

Germany's cities and industrial base were flattened in World War II, as was Korea from 1950 to 1953. Bosnia was shredded by its civil war, and the U.S. Air Force heavily damaged Serbian industry in Operation Allied Force. We do note that Kosovo is a special case, as Serbian surrender came through a political deal that has yet to fully play out, and potential for the resumption of violence in Kosovo remains high.

2. The country was substantially weakened and faced a strong and hostile neighbor, rendering a U.S. defensive occupation desirable.