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Eritrea reportedly has deployed troops to Badme, a border town occupied by Ethiopia. The two are not likely to start another border war, but there is a small chance that -- even without a flare-up...

Tensions in the Horn of Africa escalated this week with reports Nov. 27 that Eritrea decided to move troops toward the disputed border town of Badme. Currently occupied by Ethiopia, Badme recently was awarded to Eritrea by an independent commission set up to delineate the border between the two African states. The two fought a bitter two-year war in which an estimated 80,000 people were killed. Fighting centered in border towns including Badme, Zalembessa, Alitena and Bada.

Eritrea has denied deploying troops to Badme or the region surrounding the town, while a spokeswoman for the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) downplayed the troop movement, reporting that, "UNMEE has been given the explanation that the extra EDF (Eritrean Defense Forces) troops are there for harvesting, agricultural and construction purposes."

War is not likely to break out between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Both sides have a fundamental interest in the border delineation and in recognition of each other's lines. And neither wants or needs another war.

At the same time, U.S. interest in the region and in working with both Addis Ababa and Asmara to fight al Qaeda has raised the stakes for keeping the peace. Still, Eritrea's movement is meant as posturing both militarily and politically and likely will lead to the United States stepping in to ask Ethiopia to give up Badme.